FROM TAHRIR TO TIANANMEN: WILL THE FLAMES SPREAD?

“A single spark can start a prairie fire”- Chairman Mao Zedong

 Autocratic regimes throughout the world have been shaken by the popular uprisings in the Arab world since the past three months. Already two of the regimes in North Africa, that of Ben Ali in Tunisia and that of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt have been shown the door by the disenchanted citizens. Libya is entering an endgame with slim chances of Gaddafi’s government staying in power, especially in the context of the regime’s use of violence and its condemnation by the international community. The unrest has spread to countries in the Arab world from Morocco in the west to Bahrain in the east, where the people’s protests are mounting and the current regimes are struggling for their survival. Now there is a growing concern that this revolution might spread to affect similar regimes throughout Asia and Africa, and not just within the Arab world as a result of high speed information and communication network technologies. As a result, governments considered under such a risk are starting to take precautionary steps in a conciliatory as well as repressive manner, including China. Already, on the 20^th and 27^th of February 2011, there were attempts to emulate similar protests in Chinese cities, which were cracked down by the security forces.

 There are certain basic factors which form the primary reasons for popular dissent, as observed from the countries currently under such turmoil; and are a combination of socio-economic as well as political factors. The socio-economic factors include wide social and economic inequality, unemployment and high rate of inflation, which are prevalent in much of the developing world. The conditions are further aggravated by political factors such as prolonged authoritarian rule, corruption, highly restricted media freedom and lack of political opposition. China undoubtedly has all the prerequisites for the brewing of domestic discontent. 

 The social and economic disparity in Chinese society is wide, as indicated by its current Gini coefficient (calculated by the World Bank as an indicator of income inequality), which is close to 0.5 (below 0.4 level is considered to be a threshold for social unrest). The nature of development has been highly uneven in terms of socio-economic as well as geographic terms. The eastern coast has benefited the most as compared to the interior and the western frontier provinces, which are left behind. China’s urban unemployment rate stood at 4.1% for 2010, with 9.08 million registered as unemployed, when in fact the actual numbers can be a lot more on the ground. The official rate of inflation is now 4.9%, with food prices rising by a high 10.3% due to rising demand and the recent droughts which is affecting food grain production. There have been massive relocations, even forced evictions of entire villages and communities due to gigantic industrial projects like the Three Gorges dam, as well as private business, residential and industrial construction activities. This has added to the disgruntlement among ordinary citizens, especially the rural population. In fact, in a recent poll carried out by Gallup World Poll in 155 countries, it was found that China ranked 125^th in the table of worldwide happiness with only 6% of the Chinese seeing themselves as happy.

 The Communist Party of China (CPC) has been ruling the nation for over 50 years with an iron fist. There has been no significant political opposition in the state because of the lack of any kind of political freedom. All political power is concentrated in the hands of the CPC, which controls the powerful military, the People’s Liberation Army through its Central Military Commission headed by the President, Hu Jintao. The media is heavily monitored and the state controlled media is used as an extension of state propaganda and for the projection of its soft power and public diplomacy efforts targeted at the domestic as well as the foreign audience. The alternative and new media like the internet and social networking sites are also strictly under the control of the state. The propagation of any kind of “heretical” subjects related to political freedom, secession and democracy is forbidden through the internet. Access to websites hosting such themes is blocked and so is the search for related keywords, which would yield no results. Especially in the wake of current developments, terms like “jasmine” have been added to the hit-list of the censoring authorities.  Any form of dissent in China is crushed, as in the case of the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 calling for political openness and reforms, which met with a violent crackdown by the CPC using the PLA and culminated in a massacre.  Those individuals who are suspected of involvement in such kind of political activism are put under house arrest or detained. Many prominent intellectuals and advocates of human rights and political freedom have been put behind bars like Liu Xiabao, who was involved in publishing Charter 08, a manifesto calling for political reforms, seen by the state as subversive. As of political freedom, there are elections which do take place for the legislatures, but only at the county level, and only for the candidates who are members of or approved by the CPC. The other main factor which attributes to public disenchantment is corruption, which is becoming a matter of grave concern even for the CPC. Transparency International has ranked China as 78 among 178 countries in transparency with a Corruption Perception Index (CPI) of 3.5 in a scale of 10 (lower the score, more is the corruption).

The conditions seem ideal in China for unrest which could be similar in proportion to the ones happening in the Arab world. But, there are certain other factors which might negate such a possibility. The government is very much proactive now more than at any other time on keeping a close watch on the society. The emphasis of the government has now apparently shifted from economic growth to social harmony and stability focussing on equality, fairness and even development, as evident from the statements that have been coming out from Beijing recently. The annual growth rate is about to be cut down to 7% over the 12^th 5 yr plan (2011-15) for ensuring sustainable development  and improving people’s livelihood. This is in sharp contrast to the earlier high growth rates of around 10% every year during the period 2006-2010. Corruption issues are now coming under increased government scrutiny, and the CPC is taking concrete steps to fight against this issue of grave public concern. Other issues like the booming housing prices, inflation, unemployment, low wages and forced evictions are also receiving increased attention from the central government, and policies are being introduced to put a check on them. Also, public happiness is going to be used as a criterion for evaluating the governance of local governments. 

  All these issues are now getting salience, especially in the context of posts coming up on the social networking websites like Sina Weibo and Boxun appealing for revolution, where the prospective protestors are urged to shout "we want food, we want work, we want housing, we want fairness". Such actions are not only caused by the domestic reactions, but also from the growing international spotlight and pressure on the CPC regime, as in the recent case of honouring Liu Xiabao with the Nobel Peace Prize for 2010. Increasingly, nationalism is being used by the government to consolidate the population, enhance the national stability and to divert the public attention away from the social issues. This is used as part of the governments’ latest public diplomacy efforts, as evident in the successful conduct of international events like the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou and the Shanghai world expo or the successful space programme including the manned mission and the Chang’e lunar exploration project (named after the Moon Goddess). These, along with China’s economic success story have given the CPC rule a very significant amount of legitimacy. Moreover, the CPC has come a long way from being personality driven as in the case of the Mao and Deng era to more of a professional and technocratic organization. According to official sources, more and more non-Communists are taking posts as leaders in China's government, legislature, and political consultative and judicial organs at various levels. 

The situation in China has a marked difference with that of the Arab authoritarian regimes with regard to social surveillance and control, countering protests and influencing public opinion, where the Chinese regime is having a marked competency level. There have been numerous cases of protests every year in China, and thus protests are not something new. The regime has learnt valuable lessons from the Tiananmen unrest in 1989 and has developed its capability in dealing with the prevention and crackdown of such unrest through the years. The recent efforts in February have been closely monitored and controlled. The iron grip that the CPC now has on the country, its efforts in public diplomacy, and the growth, success and global stature acquired by the nation under the CPC makes it a hard case for a massive upheaval against the regime. Therefore, even though the basic conditions do exist in China for a major uprising, it is the approach from the government that makes the difference. Thus, the prospects for a revolution happening in China on a scale similar to the Arab uprising or the Tiananmen Square protests are remote. 

In China, the prairie is not yet dry enough.

GEOPOLITICAL MEMOIRS - QUARTER CENTURY IN PERSPECTIVE

Those days it seemed that the Sun would start rising from the west.

  

The man who started dismantling an empire, and apparently made the world a safer and freer place, came into power in 1985; something which went unnoticed by me born on the same year. This was not the only event that that I missed out. For about five consecutive years, all the significant events happening in the old Heartland was hopelessly beyond the reach of my senses. Then came the landmark year of 1989. The great wall was opened up at one end of the globe and closed shut at the other. Events unfolded in a chain reaction within the next two years, requiring a redrawing of world map, once again out of my range of perception.

The closest that I could recollect without much clarity is the one which happened the same year –some images of troops storming the deserts in Iraq. Soon, names of countries came to settle into my head, and maps followed. I still remember drawing them on the sand, which would resemble more the globe well before the continents attained their present shape. Within a year or two, I improvised the art of cartography, and details of most of the nations. Meanwhile, images of a drastically transformed world in chaos kept flowing in.

The earliest, most vivid images that had been archived in my memory is that of the Afghan civil war, the massacres of the Balkans and Central Africa, the poverty stricken near-human shapes of the African Horn, conflicts in Palestine, Chechnya, Kashmir and of course, the most famous faces of those times – Bill Clinton, Yitshak Rabin, Yasser Arafat, Saddam Hussain, Boris Yeltsin, Slobodan Milosovic, Paul Kagame and Jiang Zemin, among others. Slowly, as years passed by and as I went on through the mid-phase of my schooling, it felt more and more inescapable from the influence of one big force – the West. Its effect was all pervasive and to me, personified by the most powerful man in the world, and of course, Hollywood. The new American dream lured all, including myself.

Then, a series of newspaper reports in 1997 required me to do a radical reconstruction in thinking and attitude towards the globe. It was about a threat so grave that it made me curse at that time the great explorers who set out to the West almost five centuries back. The reports were on global warming, in the wake of the Kyoto Protocol. Anti-globalization, or to be more correct, anti-Amerianization became the corner stone of my first real global perspective. It was further strengthened on getting an exposure in the media and real life on the destruction of sustainable environments, native cultures and wisdom. The increasing awareness about the hegemon’s support to despotic, exploitative regimes in the Middle East and Latin America since its rise reinforced this stance. But after being tele-witness to the shocking 9/11, the jammed global war on terror and the hard hitting recession, the feeling that a sunset is inevitable in the West after almost a decade (in effect) is sinking in now.

My next transformation in attitude came with the philosophy of realism enlightening on the nuances of morality in geopolitics, as I stepped into the shoes of a scholar. Geopolitics has never been the same since; especially, in the context of a tectonic shift taking place in the geopolitical structure. The sun is starting to rise again in the east as it has now started offering and delivering promises for billions - a new opportunity to transform lives. This eastern promise even seems to deliver for anyone attempting to comprehend the inner workings of this rising power.

Now, the future does seem promising from this new sunrise in the east. 

GEOPOLITICAL FUTURE: NEW ACTORS AND GLOBAL INTEGRATION

The events of 9/11 cast the spotlight on the importance of a new player in geopolitics: the non-state actor, who does not have allegiance to any nation state, and is almost impossible to negotiate with. These actors create the rules in which the new geopolitical games are to be played. The Nuclear warheads stockpiled by the great powers suddenly found their deterrent value diminished and their liability value augmented, as the states went on an alert to keep them out of reach of these new actors. Thus, the terrorist non-state actor threat gave the states a jolt never felt before. There is yet another class of the non state actor without any direct threat, but no less powerful and even challenging the role of the state. These groups have seen a proliferating role in geopolitics in the wake of the wave of neoliberalism and the onset of globalization towards the end of the cold war period. These are bodies like the MNC's and the NGO's. In the current scenario, one can see the MNC's influencing and even controlling the states (they have been doing it earlier too, although under powerful states – the case of “Banana Republics”). They have GDP's greater than some of the nation states, and even own sports teams like the states. They have their own "dynamic" citizen base across the world. The top MNC's even have their own Foriegn Policy strategies in view of their growing role in geopolitics. As for the shortage of armies, the governments have always been there to assist.  NGO's have also made their presence felt on a global level, thriving in the onset of globalization. No doubt, these powerful new actors exist now alongside the nation state, having their own role in the geopolitical dynamics.

In the future, another actor may be in the joining, or may have done so long back. This new actor will be unlike any other actor in the current geopolitical system, and this is because it will not be of this system. This actor will be in an entirely different league of its own, since it will originate from beyond the realm of terrestrial space. Since every actor in geopolitics is known by virtue of origin of its power - the state actor from a particular state, and the non-state actor from no particular state (all this in terrestrial space, that is); this new actor can be called as the "Non-Terrestrial Actor". So, what will the terrestrial actors do about the emergence of such an actor? First of all, will these actors meet in the realm of geopolitics or astropolitics (in other words, will we go and find them in outer space or will they find us on earth)? What will be the intention of these non-terrestrials? What will be the possibility of them co-operating or confronting with the terrestrial actors? In which theatre and in what manner will the struggle for survival and supremacy be played out if it is a conflict? What will be the terms of engagement if there is co-operation? Above all, what the future will hold for geopolitics if such a contact happens? There are more questions than answers. Some of these aspects must have already been covered by science fiction products like "Close encounters of the third kind", “Alien”, "E.T", “Contact” or "Independence Day". The possibility of co-operation happening first is highly unlikely, given the realistic world that we live in. But, how possible this scenario is? The possibility of finding intelligent life outside earth may be debatable. But one thing is certain: there is absolutely no way that one can rule out completely the existence of such extra-terrestrials. In fact, scientific communities have been continuously searching for this with the likes of SETI (Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) active in the field.

So, the question which now poses itself is this: would the world have to wait for these "Non-Terrestrial Actors" to come, so as to enable true global integration in an effort against such a threat in the form of a collective security system? Are there not enough causes in the terrestrial domain that demand such a global integration or consensus? Yes, but those are of our own creation like Nuclear Weapons and climate change and therefore subject to different perceptions. Therefore, ultimately, it has to be acknowledged that it is only external threats unrelated to us, which will bring out the spirit of fraternity in humans, as evident from human nature from the numerous instances in the history of geopolitics.