FROM TAHRIR TO TIANANMEN: WILL THE FLAMES SPREAD?

“A single spark can start a prairie fire”- Chairman Mao Zedong

 Autocratic regimes throughout the world have been shaken by the popular uprisings in the Arab world since the past three months. Already two of the regimes in North Africa, that of Ben Ali in Tunisia and that of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt have been shown the door by the disenchanted citizens. Libya is entering an endgame with slim chances of Gaddafi’s government staying in power, especially in the context of the regime’s use of violence and its condemnation by the international community. The unrest has spread to countries in the Arab world from Morocco in the west to Bahrain in the east, where the people’s protests are mounting and the current regimes are struggling for their survival. Now there is a growing concern that this revolution might spread to affect similar regimes throughout Asia and Africa, and not just within the Arab world as a result of high speed information and communication network technologies. As a result, governments considered under such a risk are starting to take precautionary steps in a conciliatory as well as repressive manner, including China. Already, on the 20^th and 27^th of February 2011, there were attempts to emulate similar protests in Chinese cities, which were cracked down by the security forces.

 There are certain basic factors which form the primary reasons for popular dissent, as observed from the countries currently under such turmoil; and are a combination of socio-economic as well as political factors. The socio-economic factors include wide social and economic inequality, unemployment and high rate of inflation, which are prevalent in much of the developing world. The conditions are further aggravated by political factors such as prolonged authoritarian rule, corruption, highly restricted media freedom and lack of political opposition. China undoubtedly has all the prerequisites for the brewing of domestic discontent. 

 The social and economic disparity in Chinese society is wide, as indicated by its current Gini coefficient (calculated by the World Bank as an indicator of income inequality), which is close to 0.5 (below 0.4 level is considered to be a threshold for social unrest). The nature of development has been highly uneven in terms of socio-economic as well as geographic terms. The eastern coast has benefited the most as compared to the interior and the western frontier provinces, which are left behind. China’s urban unemployment rate stood at 4.1% for 2010, with 9.08 million registered as unemployed, when in fact the actual numbers can be a lot more on the ground. The official rate of inflation is now 4.9%, with food prices rising by a high 10.3% due to rising demand and the recent droughts which is affecting food grain production. There have been massive relocations, even forced evictions of entire villages and communities due to gigantic industrial projects like the Three Gorges dam, as well as private business, residential and industrial construction activities. This has added to the disgruntlement among ordinary citizens, especially the rural population. In fact, in a recent poll carried out by Gallup World Poll in 155 countries, it was found that China ranked 125^th in the table of worldwide happiness with only 6% of the Chinese seeing themselves as happy.

 The Communist Party of China (CPC) has been ruling the nation for over 50 years with an iron fist. There has been no significant political opposition in the state because of the lack of any kind of political freedom. All political power is concentrated in the hands of the CPC, which controls the powerful military, the People’s Liberation Army through its Central Military Commission headed by the President, Hu Jintao. The media is heavily monitored and the state controlled media is used as an extension of state propaganda and for the projection of its soft power and public diplomacy efforts targeted at the domestic as well as the foreign audience. The alternative and new media like the internet and social networking sites are also strictly under the control of the state. The propagation of any kind of “heretical” subjects related to political freedom, secession and democracy is forbidden through the internet. Access to websites hosting such themes is blocked and so is the search for related keywords, which would yield no results. Especially in the wake of current developments, terms like “jasmine” have been added to the hit-list of the censoring authorities.  Any form of dissent in China is crushed, as in the case of the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 calling for political openness and reforms, which met with a violent crackdown by the CPC using the PLA and culminated in a massacre.  Those individuals who are suspected of involvement in such kind of political activism are put under house arrest or detained. Many prominent intellectuals and advocates of human rights and political freedom have been put behind bars like Liu Xiabao, who was involved in publishing Charter 08, a manifesto calling for political reforms, seen by the state as subversive. As of political freedom, there are elections which do take place for the legislatures, but only at the county level, and only for the candidates who are members of or approved by the CPC. The other main factor which attributes to public disenchantment is corruption, which is becoming a matter of grave concern even for the CPC. Transparency International has ranked China as 78 among 178 countries in transparency with a Corruption Perception Index (CPI) of 3.5 in a scale of 10 (lower the score, more is the corruption).

The conditions seem ideal in China for unrest which could be similar in proportion to the ones happening in the Arab world. But, there are certain other factors which might negate such a possibility. The government is very much proactive now more than at any other time on keeping a close watch on the society. The emphasis of the government has now apparently shifted from economic growth to social harmony and stability focussing on equality, fairness and even development, as evident from the statements that have been coming out from Beijing recently. The annual growth rate is about to be cut down to 7% over the 12^th 5 yr plan (2011-15) for ensuring sustainable development  and improving people’s livelihood. This is in sharp contrast to the earlier high growth rates of around 10% every year during the period 2006-2010. Corruption issues are now coming under increased government scrutiny, and the CPC is taking concrete steps to fight against this issue of grave public concern. Other issues like the booming housing prices, inflation, unemployment, low wages and forced evictions are also receiving increased attention from the central government, and policies are being introduced to put a check on them. Also, public happiness is going to be used as a criterion for evaluating the governance of local governments. 

  All these issues are now getting salience, especially in the context of posts coming up on the social networking websites like Sina Weibo and Boxun appealing for revolution, where the prospective protestors are urged to shout "we want food, we want work, we want housing, we want fairness". Such actions are not only caused by the domestic reactions, but also from the growing international spotlight and pressure on the CPC regime, as in the recent case of honouring Liu Xiabao with the Nobel Peace Prize for 2010. Increasingly, nationalism is being used by the government to consolidate the population, enhance the national stability and to divert the public attention away from the social issues. This is used as part of the governments’ latest public diplomacy efforts, as evident in the successful conduct of international events like the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou and the Shanghai world expo or the successful space programme including the manned mission and the Chang’e lunar exploration project (named after the Moon Goddess). These, along with China’s economic success story have given the CPC rule a very significant amount of legitimacy. Moreover, the CPC has come a long way from being personality driven as in the case of the Mao and Deng era to more of a professional and technocratic organization. According to official sources, more and more non-Communists are taking posts as leaders in China's government, legislature, and political consultative and judicial organs at various levels. 

The situation in China has a marked difference with that of the Arab authoritarian regimes with regard to social surveillance and control, countering protests and influencing public opinion, where the Chinese regime is having a marked competency level. There have been numerous cases of protests every year in China, and thus protests are not something new. The regime has learnt valuable lessons from the Tiananmen unrest in 1989 and has developed its capability in dealing with the prevention and crackdown of such unrest through the years. The recent efforts in February have been closely monitored and controlled. The iron grip that the CPC now has on the country, its efforts in public diplomacy, and the growth, success and global stature acquired by the nation under the CPC makes it a hard case for a massive upheaval against the regime. Therefore, even though the basic conditions do exist in China for a major uprising, it is the approach from the government that makes the difference. Thus, the prospects for a revolution happening in China on a scale similar to the Arab uprising or the Tiananmen Square protests are remote. 

In China, the prairie is not yet dry enough.